Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Planet in sweet spot of Goldilocks zone for life (AP)

WASHINGTON ? A newly discovered planet is eerily similar to Earth and is sitting outside our solar system in what seems to be the ideal place for life, except for one hitch. It's a bit too big.

The planet is smack in the middle of what astronomers call the Goldilocks zone, that hard to find place that's not too hot, not too cold, where water, which is essential for life, doesn't freeze or boil. And it has a shopping mall-like surface temperature of near 72 degrees, scientists say.

The planet's confirmation was announced Monday by NASA along with other discoveries by its Kepler telescope, which was launched on a planet-hunting mission in 2009.

That's the first planet confirmed in the habitable zone for Kepler, which had already found Earth-like rocky planets elsewhere. Twice before astronomers have announced a planet found in that zone, but neither have been as promising.

"This is a phenomenal discovery in the course of human history," Geoff Marcy of University of California, Berkeley, one of the pioneers of planet-hunting outside our solar system, said in an email. "This discovery shows that we Homo sapiens are straining our reach into the universe to find planets that remind us of home. We are almost there."

The new planet ? named Kepler-22b ? has key aspects it shares with Earth. It circles a star that could be the twin of our sun and at just about the same distance. The planet's year of 290 days is even close to ours. It likely has water and rock.

The only trouble is the planet's a bit big for life to exist on the surface. The planet is about 2.4 times the size of Earth. It could be more like the gas-and-liquid Neptune with only a rocky core and mostly ocean.

"It's so exciting to imagine the possibilities," said Natalie Batalha, the Kepler deputy science chief.

Floating on that "world completely covered in water" could be like being on an Earth ocean and "it's not beyond the realm of possibility that life could exist in such an ocean," Batalha said in a phone interview.

Kepler can't find life itself, just where the conditions might be right for it to thrive. And when astronomers look for life elsewhere they're talking about everything ranging from microbes to advanced intelligence that can be looking back at us.

So far the Kepler telescope has spotted 2,326 candidate planets outside our solar system with 139 of them potentially habitable ones. Even though the confirmed Kepler-22b is a bit big, it is still smaller than most of the other candidates. It is closest to Earth in size, temperature and star than either of the two previously announced planets in the zone.

The confirmation of one of two, though, has been disputed. The latest discovery has been confirmed several ways, including by two other telescopes.

Earlier this year, a European team of astronomers said they had confirmed another planet in the habitable zone, but that one was hot and barely on the inside edge of the habitable zone.

For Marcy, who is on the Kepler team, the newest planet is a smidgen too large. But, "that smidgen makes all the difference," he said.

Because its size implies that it's closer to Neptune in composition than Earth, "I would bet my telescope that there is no hard, rocky surface to walk on," Marcy said.

Chief Kepler scientist William Borucki said he thinks the planet is somewhere between Earth and gas-and-liquid Neptune, but that it has a lot of rocky material. It's in a size range that scientists don't really know anything about. Measurements next summer may help astronomers have a better idea of its makeup, he said.

The planet is 600 light years away. Each light year is 5.9 trillion miles. It would take a space shuttle about 22 million years to get there.

Kepler spots a planet when it passes in front of its star. NASA requires three of those sightings before it begins to confirm it as a planet. Borucki said the third sighting for 22b happened a year ago, just before the telescope shut down for a while. It took several months to finish the confirmation.

"It's a great gift," Borucki said. "We consider this sort of our Christmas planet."

___

Online:

NASA's Kepler Telescope: http://www.nasa.gov/kepler

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/science/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111206/ap_on_sc/us_sci_alien_planet

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Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Source: W.Va. mine disaster yields $210M agreement (AP)

CHARLESTON, W.Va. ? The West Virginia coal mine blast that killed 29 men has yielded a wide-ranging and historic $210 million settlement proposal to compensate victims' families, pay fines and improve underground safety in response to the worst U.S. coal mining disaster in decades, an attorney with knowledge of the settlement told The Associated Press on Tuesday.

The agreement between federal authorities and the new owners of the Upper Big Branch mine includes $46.5 million in criminal restitution to the miners' families, $128 million to fund cutting-edge mine safety upgrades, research and training, and $35 million in penalties for federal mine safety violations. It also does not prevent the future prosecutions of individuals on criminal charges in the April 2010 blast.

The person was not authorized to talk about the details before an official announcement and asked for anonymity. U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin, of West Virginia's southern federal court district, has scheduled a Tuesday morning press conference at the Robert C. Byrd U.S. Courthouse in Charleston.

The U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration, meanwhile, expected to brief the victims' families and then the media Tuesday on its final report from the disaster. Federal investigators have previously blamed the Raleigh County blast on a combination of methane gas, coal dust and broken or malfunctioning equipment in the underground mine.

Massey Energy Co. operated Upper Big Branch through a subsidiary at the time of the explosion. The Virginia-based Massey has since been acquired by rival Alpha Natural Resources, which reached the sweeping agreement with federal officials.

Alpha has agreed to pay $35 million for all citations against Massey's former mines, including $10.8 million in violations that MSHA will announce in Tuesday's investigative report.

The $46.5 million in criminal restitution aims to guarantee that the families of the 29 miners and two co-workers who survived the explosion each receive $1.5 million. Several families have already received this portion of the agreement, by settling with Massey in the months following the disaster.

The Virginia-based Alpha will also invest $48 million in a mine, health and safety research trust, and another $80 million to improve safety at all of its underground mines with the latest technology and equipment. The upgrades include sufficient workers and gear to coat mines with crushed limestone to dilute the explosive coal dust that accumulates during mining.

These investments will also fund a state-of-the-art training center in southern West Virginia that will host a laboratory capable of testing safety conditions in ways that would be too dangerous to attempt in actual mines.

Alpha has also agreed to audit all of its underground mines, correct any shortcomings found within 90 days and report those results to federal officials. The company must similarly share the findings of its internal investigation into the disaster.

The agreement appears to be among the largest resulting from a U.S. mining disaster. The settlement is sizable by Massey standards. In 2009, Massey and subsidiary Aracoma Coal Co. agreed to pay $4.2 million in criminal fines and civil penalties related to a January 2006 fire that killed two miners at the Alma No. 1 mine.

Don Bragg and Ellery Elvis Hatfield died after getting lost as they tried to flee the sprawling underground Logan County mine. Their widows had settled a wrongful death lawsuit for undisclosed terms in 2008. Four mine supervisors later pleaded guilty to federal misdemeanor charges that they failed to lead crews on required escape drills at various times in 2005 and 2006.

Gary Quarles, whose son Gary Wayne died in the explosion near Montcoal last April, said he wasn't told about the purpose of the Tuesday morning teleconference, but he was hoping for criminal indictments.

"Somebody's got to pay for what's been done," he told The Associated Press late Monday.

Quarles, a miner for nearly 40 years and a former Massey employee, had been inside Upper Big Branch and knew that his son faced bad conditions every day he went to work. But in the eight months since the blast, previous MSHA briefings and comprehensive reports by independent investigators and the United Mine Workers of America have revealed "it was worse than what we thought ? a lot worse," he said.

The United Mine Workers of America, the nation's largest coal miners' union, said last month that conditions were so dangerous that Massey executives and managers should be prosecuted for "industrial homicide."

MSHA's final report is likely to include a list of specific violations that contributed, but the agency also refused to comment on the report before its official release. Nor would officials there answer questions about the settlement.

Alpha, which bought Massey and Upper Big Branch in June, has said it's still reviewing the explosion but hasn't indicated whether or when it might issue a report. The state mine safety office, meanwhile, expects to complete its report by the end of January.

But all the reports so far agree on the mechanics of what happened: Poorly maintained machines cutting into sandstone created a spark that ignited both a small amount of naturally occurring methane gas and a massive accumulation of explosive coal dust. Malfunctioning water sprayers allowed what could have been a small flare-up to become an epic blast that traveled seven miles of underground corridors, doubling back on itself and killing men instantly.

All three also say the explosion could have been prevented or contained. Had the mine been sufficiently dusted with pulverized limestone to render the coal dust inert, the spark wouldn't have had the fuel to propagate.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/topstories/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111206/ap_on_re_us/us_mine_explosion

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Monday, December 5, 2011

Confirmed! Madonna to Headline Super Bowl Halftime Show

During a commercial break from last night's Sunday Night Football, NBC officially confirmed that Madonna will play the halftime show at Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis, airing Sunday, Feb. 5, on NBC. Watch the announcement here:

Source: http://www.ivillage.com/madonna-headline-super-bowl-halftime-show/1-a-407986?dst=iv%3AiVillage%3Amadonna-headline-super-bowl-halftime-show-407986

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Official Galaxy Nexus dock accessories play pre-order, CarDock and HDMI included (video)

If holding one of the most pimpin' phones on the planet isn't enough to properly distinguish you from the pack, then it's time to accessorize that slab, ya dig? Four Samsung dock connectors for the Galaxy Nexus have entered pre-order phase, which include the standard horizontal station, a vertical option for HDMI, a CarDock that can be oriented in either direction, along with a simpler one that's used to charge an additional battery. The biggies each retail for £50, whereas the charger is going for £15. No word on actual ship dates, but you'll find videos for each item after the break.

[Thanks, Denny]

Continue reading Official Galaxy Nexus dock accessories play pre-order, CarDock and HDMI included (video)

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Sunday, December 4, 2011

Sarkozy: Paris, Berlin to push for treaty changes (AP)

PARIS ? France and Germany plan to push for fundamental changes to the European treaty governing the euro in order to save the currency, President Nicolas Sarkozy said Thursday.

Sarkozy said in a speech in the southern port city of Toulon that during their meeting in Paris on Monday he and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will unveil proposals to try to lift Europe out of its debt crisis and "guarantee" its future.

"France will push with Germany for a new European treaty refounding and rethinking the organization of Europe," Sarkozy said. "The Maastricht Treaty has revealed itself to be imperfect," Sarkozy said, referring to the pact that led to the creation of the euro currency in 1999.

"There can be no common currency without economic convergence without which the euro will be too strong for some, too weak for others, and the eurozone will break up," the French president said before an audience of several thousand sympathizers of his conservative party.

Changes in the treaty would have to be approved by all 27 EU members, 10 of whom don't use the euro currency.

Sarkozy said the process of reforming the treaty "will be long and difficult" but is necessary to protect Europe's place in the world.

Speculation is mounting that EU leaders will align their spending policies more closely to bring government debt levels under control in the future. This is seen as a necessary measure before the European Central Bank or other institutions can take more aggressive steps to help prevent the debt overload from destroying the euro and wreaking havoc in the global financial system.

Sarkozy, who is widely expected to seek a second mandate during France's April and May presidential election, brushed aside the balloting, saying he must focus on the dire financial situation.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/europe/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111201/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_france_financial_crisis

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Saturday, December 3, 2011

Video: Matthews on World AIDS Day

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Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036697/vp/45516110#45516110

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Anaheim Ducks fire Carlyle, hire Bruce Boudreau

FILE - In this April 6, 2010 file photo, Washington Capitals' Alex Ovechkin, right, of Russia, cools down on the bench with coach Bruce Boudreau, during the third period of an NHL hockey game against the Pittsburgh Penguins, in Pittsburgh. Boudreau isn't blaming his newfound unemployment on Ovechkin. The Capitals coach spoke publicly Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2011, for the first time since being fired on Monday. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File)

FILE - In this April 6, 2010 file photo, Washington Capitals' Alex Ovechkin, right, of Russia, cools down on the bench with coach Bruce Boudreau, during the third period of an NHL hockey game against the Pittsburgh Penguins, in Pittsburgh. Boudreau isn't blaming his newfound unemployment on Ovechkin. The Capitals coach spoke publicly Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2011, for the first time since being fired on Monday. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File)

Anaheim Ducks' head coach Randy Carlyle looks toward the scoreboard in the third period of an NHL hockey game against the Montreal Canadiens in Anaheim, Calif., on Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2011. The Ducks won 4-1. (AP Photo/ Christine Cotter)

(AP) ? Randy Carlyle appeared relieved after his Anaheim Ducks snapped a seven-game skid Wednesday night, figuring his talented club had turned a corner.

If only the winningest coach in franchise history had known what was waiting for him around that corner.

Fed up with the Ducks' inexplicably slow start, the club fired the Stanley Cup-winning coach and his staff late Wednesday night. Anaheim swiftly replaced Carlyle with former Washington coach Bruce Boudreau, who was dismissed by the Capitals just two days earlier.

The Ducks made the abrupt moves after beating Montreal 4-1 on Wednesday night for just their third victory in 19 games. Despite the presence of league MVP Corey Perry, captain Ryan Getzlaf, 41-year-old scorer Teemu Selanne and All-Star goalie Jonas Hiller, the Ducks are off to a 7-13-4 start, ahead of only Columbus in the 15-team Western Conference.

"Randy is a terrific head coach, and did a tremendous job for us for six-plus seasons," Anaheim general manager Bob Murray said. "We thank him greatly for his hard work and dedication to our franchise, not the least of which was a Stanley Cup championship. At this time, we simply felt a new voice was needed. Bruce is a proven winner with a great track record, and we are optimistic we can turn this season around under his leadership."

Carlyle coached the Ducks to the franchise's only Stanley Cup title and Pacific Division championship in 2007, but the longtime NHL defenseman struggled to get his talented club's attention this fall after agreeing in August to a three-year contract extension through the 2013-14 season.

After Anaheim's seventh straight defeat last Sunday night, a dispassionate 5-2 loss to Toronto, Carlyle lamented that his players sometimes seemed to be "dead between the ears." He was in a better mood after the Ducks handled the Canadiens, praising their tenacity and his stars' leadership through a tough stretch.

A few minutes later, Carlyle was dismissed from the job he had held since August 2005. Anaheim cleaned house Wednesday night, also firing assistant coaches Dave Farrish and Mike Foligno and video coordinator Joe Trotta.

The Ducks hired Brad Lauer as an assistant coach to Boudreau, and will add another assistant soon.

Carlyle is the fourth coach to be fired in the always-impatient NHL's young season, and the third this week. Paul Maurice was also dismissed on Monday by the Carolina Hurricanes, while Davis Payne was let go by the St. Louis Blues on Nov. 6.

Boudreau, after doing a round of interviews Wednesday morning in which he said the Capitals made the right move by firing him, took a new job less than 72 hours after leaving a remarkably similar situation in Washington, which dropped him Monday after a slow start with a talented roster that's had little recent playoff success.

Boudreau will run the Ducks' practice on Thursday before his formal introduction, and his new players will be in for a major change from the sometimes-crusty Carlyle to the personable Boudreau, nicknamed "Gabby" for his garrulous style. Anaheim hosts Philadelphia on Friday night for Boudreau's debut.

Carlyle was behind Anaheim's bench for many of the 1993 expansion franchise's biggest moments. He had compiled a 273-182-6 record after taking over for Mike Babcock as the seventh head coach in club history.

Carlyle led Anaheim to the postseason in five of his first six seasons, winning more playoff games during that stretch than any coach except Babcock in Detroit. But Anaheim won just one playoff round in the past four years since winning the Cup, losing to fifth-seeded Nashville in the first round last season.

Boudreau led Washington to the last four Southeast Division titles and the 2010 Presidents' Trophy while winning 201 games in just four years on the job, but the Caps' lack of playoff success helped to seal his fate when they slumped following a 7-0 start to this season.

He won the Jack Adams award as the NHL's best coach in 2008, but never got past the second round of the playoffs despite a roster featuring Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin and talented supporting casts. Boudreau favors an attacking offensive style that should suit the Ducks' talented forwards, although Carlyle also gave his players plenty of freedom for offensive creativity.

Lauer was promoted from the Ducks' AHL affiliate in Syracuse, where he had been an assistant since July. He spent the previous two seasons on the Ottawa Senators' staff.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/347875155d53465d95cec892aeb06419/Article_2011-12-01-Ducks-Carlyle%20Fired/id-b7b2677103d844d7bcf4939fbb44a985

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Friday, December 2, 2011

On Capsaicin: Why Do We Eat Love Hot Peppers?

Stories of pepper spray have been all over the news lately. On Fox News, Megyn Kelly wondered what all the fuss about this ?food product? was, and while pepper spray is no vegetable, the compound that makes pepper spray into a weapon at 2-5.3 million Scoville units, is indeed the same compound that many humans find enjoyable when consumed in dishes that include peppers much lower on the Scoville scale. Indeed, as Deborah Blum wrote, it?s the ?the dose makes the poison.? Even if the edible variety of capsaicin-loaded foodstuffs aren?t dangerous like pepper spray is, why do humans the pain-inducing burn at all? I explored this question in a piece last year at The Guardian?s science blog (which explains all the British spelling).

Dave?s Red Hot. Mother Puckers. Green Bandit. Scorned Woman. Pain is Good. Blair?s Death. No, they?re not rock bands. These names represent just a small selection of the brands of hot sauce available at my local supermarket.

Humans, apparently, enjoy torturing themselves. Spiciness, after all, is not a flavour, not like sweet or salty or sour. Spicy means pain. The sensation of spiciness is the result of the activation of pain receptors in the tongue. According to psychologist Paul Rozin of the University of Pennsylvania, about a third of the people around the world eat hot peppers every single day. Why? Because they ?love the burn?. At a symposium on gastro-psychology during this year?s Association for Psychological Science convention, Rozin pointed out that humans are the only species ? we know about ? that specifically seek out what would otherwise be considered negative events.

Healthy, sane humans do not stab themselves in the thighs, or bathe their eyes in lemon juice. So why do we so love to assault one of the most sensitive organs in the human body, the tongue, with what amounts to chemical warfare? Chillies are unique among foods that we should otherwise not enjoy. For example, humans also have natural aversions to the bitterness of coffee or the harshness of tobacco, but those substances have some addictive qualities, which might make them desirable. Capsaicin, the compound that provides the mouth-watering punch of chillies, does not seem to have any addictive qualities whatsoever. And yet the preference for capsaicin is almost universal; nearly every culture has incorporated it into their cuisine in some way, for milllennia.

Rozin writes:

?There are records suggesting use of chilli pepper dating back to 7000BC in Mesoamerica; they were domesticated some thousands of years after this. These fiery foods made their debut in the Old World when they were brought back by Columbus and other early explorers. In spite of their initial unpalatability, they became accepted as a basic part of the diet in many parts of the world: west and east Africa, India, south-east Asia, parts of China, Indonesia, Korea, and other smaller geographic regions, such as Hungary.?

Most young children, even from cultures known for their spicy recipes, are averse to capsaicin. So maybe, then, instead of actually liking the pain, we?re merely desensitising ourselves: what used to be really painful is now just sort of painful.

Since capsaicin is a member of the vanilloid family of molecules, it binds to a receptor on the tongue called the vanilloid receptor subtype 1. Upon binding to the VR1 receptor, the sensation produced by the capsaicin molecule is the same sensation that heat would cause, which explains capsaicin?s burn. When scientists discovered that the VR1 receptor was a member of the larger family of TRP ion channels, the VR1 receptor was renamed TRPV1. TRP receptors are known to be sensitive to changes in temperature and are likely responsible for temperature sensation. When chilli peppers are the source of the capsaicin, there isn?t any actual tissue damage; but because it binds to the TRPV1 receptor, the brain is tricked into believing that the tongue truly is on fire.

In 1980, Rozin and a colleague, Deborah Schiller, reported a study in which they compared the pepper preferences of Mexicans and Americans. Mexicans generally eat chillies several times per day, while Americans only eat chillies a few times a week. If desensitisation could explain our preference for oral pain, then Mexicans should show higher tolerance for capsaicin than Americans, and Americans should more easily detect capsaicin, even in small amounts, than Mexicans.

The data only weakly supported these predictions: the differences were seen, but were not statistically significant. Another prediction made by the desensitisation hypothesis is that individual tolerance should increase with exposure, and therefore with age. Rozin and Schiller found no correlation between age and tolerance though. Experiments conducted to try to induce a preference for capsaicin in rats, using traditional reinforcement techniques, proved futile.

In the late 1970s, Frito-Lay tried to market a brand of corn chips in Mexico that had the flavour of chilli peppers, but without any capsaicin. As would be expected in a culture that actually enjoys the burn, the product was a failure. Likewise, bell peppers, which have some pepper flavour but no capsaicin, are not at all popular in Mexico.

While most scientists still do not quite have a handle on the human preference for spicy foods, the best explanation comes from a mechanism called ?hedonic reversal?, or ?benign masochism?. Something happens, in millions of humans each year, which changes a negative evaluation into a positive evaluation, like flipping a light switch.

Rozin writes: ?If the oral receptors are sending the same message to the brain in the chilli liker and the chilli hater, then the chilli liker must have come to like the very same sensation that the chilli hater, the infant, and nonhuman animals find aversive. One gets to like the burn.? Only humans seem to be able to derive pleasure from the negative sensation itself. Animals have been trained to endure self-harm, but only within the context of positive reinforcement.

Perhaps we seek out the painful experience of snacking on chillies while consciously maintaining awareness that there is no real danger to ourselves. After all, people seem to enjoy ? and actively seek out ? many other sensations that are otherwise undesirable but are ostensibly safe: the sensation of falling provided by rollercoasters or skydiving, the feelings of fear and anxiety while watching horror movies, the physical pain experienced upon jumping into icy water, or even the feelings of sadness that come while watching a tear-jerker. Perhaps it is this cognitive mismatch itself that provides the thrill: like strapping into a rollercoaster or popping Hostel into your DVD player over and over again, the burn of capsaicin only seems to be threatening.

Want a thrill? Go out and buy yourself a bottle of One F#$%kin? Drop At A Time Hot Sauce. It comes with an eye-dropper for portion control. Benign masochism, indeed.

Photo: Flickr/dbeck03

Source: http://rss.sciam.com/click.phdo?i=cad584e7e75f78906ca0822919eb5c13

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Monday, November 28, 2011

Second Cancer Often Same Type as the First, Study Finds (HealthDay)

MONDAY, Nov. 28 (HealthDay News) -- If cancer survivors develop a second cancer, it's most likely to be the same type of cancer as the first, researchers report.

About 15 percent of cancer survivors worldwide are diagnosed with a second primary cancer, the authors of the new report pointed out.

In the study, investigators analyzed data from the entire population of Denmark (7.5 million) from 1980 to 2007 and found that about 10 percent (765,255 people) had one or more diagnoses of primary cancer, for a total of 843,118 diagnoses.

Cancer survivors had a 2.2-fold risk of developing a second primary cancer of the same type as the first type of cancer, and a 1.1-fold risk of developing a different type of second primary cancer, the findings showed.

The risk varied, depending on the type of cancer. The risk of a second cancer of the same type was greatest among sarcoma survivors and lower among prostate cancer survivors. The risk of a second cancer of a different type was highest among larynx cancer survivors and lower among prostate cancer survivors, according to the report published Nov. 28 in CMAJ (Canadian Medical Association Journal).

"The striking contrast between the 2.2-fold increased risk of a second primary cancer being the same type as the first and the 1.1-fold increased risk of it being different from the first cancer suggests that characteristics of the individual patient were involved," wrote study author Dr. Stig Bojesen of Herlev Hospital, Copenhagen University Hospital and the University of Copenhagen, and colleagues. "The risk of a second primary cancer seems to be specific to cancer type and is probably driven by the patient's genetic and lifestyle risk factors."

More information

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more about cancer survivors.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/diseases/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/hsn/20111128/hl_hsn/secondcanceroftensametypeasthefirststudyfinds

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Can China Rescue Its Economy?

wujiao X 2

Image by Robert S. Donovan via Flickr

On Wednesday, HSBC roiled markets around the world by releasing its Flash China Purchasing Managers? Index for November.? The widely followed indicator dropped from 51.0 to 48.1, crossing the crucial line of 50 that divides expansion from contraction.? Most worrisome, it appears that the factory sector is shrinking due to weakness in domestic, as opposed to export, orders.

The drop in the HSBC Index, which normally moves only tenths of a point at a time, is just another sign that the world?s second-largest economy is contracting from one month to the next.? The troubling news follows October numbers, which also pointed toward a rapid falloff.? There was, for instance, a sharp decline in inflation, collapsing real estate prices, and a big decrease in bellwether car sales.? The wheels are coming off the Chinese economy, with indicators dropping faster than virtually all analysts?including me?predicted.

Chinese technocrats have already started to react, applying monetary measures.? The People?s Bank of China, the central bank, this month cut its required reserve ratio for 20 co-operative banks to 16.0%, a reduction of a half point.? Officials maintained that this move did not represent a change in their tightening policy, but, as Tom Holland of the South China Morning Post points out, the denial ?stretches credulity.?? PBOC watchers, therefore, see the limited relaxation as a hint that the institution will soon cut reserve requirements, now at historic highs, for all banks.

Moreover, Wang Qishan gave a tantalizing indication of an overall change of policy last Monday.? ?An unbalanced recovery would be better than a balanced recession,? the vice premier said to his American counterparts at the 22nd session of the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade in Chengdu.

Wang?s meaning was not entirely clear, at least from his published comments.? Chinese officials in Chengdu did not say they would try to promote exports, although they did that in the Asian Financial Crisis at the end of the 1990s and again in the 2008 downturn.? Indeed, many now predict that Beijing will stop the general appreciation of the renminbi precisely for this purpose.

Moreover, Beijing is bound to go back to pump-priming tactics. ?At the same time the vice premier spoke about further unbalancing the Chinese economy, Beijing?s technocrats began talking about their goal, incorporated in the ongoing 12th Five-Year Plan, to spend $1.7 trillion on green and high-tech sectors.

Beijing has been consistently successful in creating growth during times of external crisis.? But will its plans work this time?

The favorable outcome from the Asian Financial Crisis is not applicable to today?s situation.? Then, demand throughout the developed world was robust.? Today, however, European orders have dropped dramatically.? Moreover, American consumers?still the engine of global growth?appear to be tapped out, despite their record-shattering exuberance on Black Friday.

Furthermore, the international community is much less tolerant of Beijing?s mercantilism these days, as evidenced by China?s exclusion from the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations in Honolulu this month.? And if the world tumbles into a second downturn, as increasingly distressing events from Europe suggest, exports will not be making a significant contribution to China?s growth.

Beijing, therefore, will need to resort to monetary and fiscal tools to restart the domestic economy.? In view of the recent monetary tightening, there is room for easing.? Yet the PBOC cannot lower benchmark interest rates?the most effective monetary tool?because that would undoubtedly trigger an outflow of deposits from the commercial banks. ?Deposit rates are already well below inflation, so Beijing does not have much flexibility.

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2011/11/27/can-china-rescue-its-economy/?feed=rss_home

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